With the increasing number of electric vehicles on the market, can power battery raw materials be self-sufficient?

 Or what kind of scale can the number of electric vehicles in the market reach?

 This involves a well-worn question, whether power battery recycling is a good business or a big one.

 Based on Tesla's entry into China in 2014, the first batch of Model S power batteries have an 8-year lifespan, and the first batch of electric car owners in China are entering the car replacement season . At the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that China will truly usher in the first wave of decommissioning of power lithium batteries. On June 15, Huang Libin, director of the Department of Energy Conservation and Comprehensive Utilization of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, led a team to China Tower Company to conduct a special investigation on the reuse of power batteries.

 Industry insiders have always warned that waste power batteries are more polluting than fossil fuels.

 On the other hand, the Russian-Ukrainian war and the explosive development of new energy vehicles have made the prices of raw materials such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium continue to soar.

 As of June 23, the average price of lithium carbonate has reached 450,000 yuan/ton, the average price of electrolytic nickel is 193,700 yuan/ton, and the average price of electrolytic cobalt is 405,000 yuan /Ton.

 Mineral resources such as nickel and cobalt are mostly found in impoverished areas of Africa, and countries have been worried that new geopolitical disasters and conflicts will be triggered.

 Guoxuan Hi-Tech Party Secretary and Chairman Li Zhen put forward a new view at the 100-person meeting of electric vehicles held in March this year: battery recycling will end the new energy industry Unlimited access to the earth's resources.

  Citing data from Bloomberg, he said that the global new energy industry's demand for batteries is expected to exceed 1.5TWh by 2025, and after ten years, these batteries will be gradually recycled, Then, by 2035, assuming that the newly produced battery is 5TWh, 1.5TWh of battery raw materials can be derived from battery recycling resources.

 Of course, considering the possible losses due to various reasons during the recycling process, the actual amount of new batteries produced using recycled resources will be less than 1.5TWh.

 Li Zhen believes that when the total demand for raw batteries for manufacturing batteries and the total supply of materials provided by recycled batteries reach a balance, human beings will no longer need to ask nature for batteries indefinitely manufacturing resources. Moreover, Li Zhen also gave Guoxuan Hi-Tech's prediction for this time, that is, around 2040.

 Coincidentally, at the end of April, CATL also stated on its conference call that when the penetration rate of electric vehicles reaches 80-90%, it is no longer necessary to dig new mines .

 Recycling power batteries, some people call it a new blue ocean of 100 billion, and some people call it an environmental protection cause.

 Be it profit-driven, environmental protection, or just a problem that must be solved, the reality is that more and more companies are entering this field.

 Data compiled by Zhiyan Consulting show that during the period from 2016 to 2020, the number of registered power battery recycling companies in China grew slowly. In 2021, the number of registrations will increase rapidly, and the number of registrations will reach 24,515. By 2022, it will surge to more than 40,000.

 But there are only 47 companies that meet the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Industry Standard Conditions for Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles" announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

 On June 22, Sina Finance reported that Toyota is working with RedwoodMaterials, a battery recycling company led by Tesla co-founder JB Straubel, to recycle car batteries.

 The goal is to create a closed-loop supply chain for electric vehicles, where batteries are taken from old electric vehicles and re-produced into new ones.

 According to the East Asia Qianhai Securities Research Report, in 2020, about 200,000 tons of power batteries will be retired in my country. It is estimated that by 2030, the total number of retired power batteries will reach 2.37 million tons. .

 Everbright Securities predicts that by 2030, the recycling of ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries will form a market of 100 billion yuan. Among them, in the case of the average market price, the total market space for the recycling of ternary lithium battery metals is about 60 billion yuan, and the market space for the cascade utilization and recycling of lithium iron phosphate batteries is more than 48 billion yuan.

 In an emerging market of 100 billion yuan, various roles such as battery manufacturers, new energy materials companies, automobile manufacturers and professional recycling companies are swarming into the game, trying to decommission batteries Seize the opportunity at the beginning of the tide.

 Because it is in the early stage, the regulations have not been perfected, and the external environment is turbulent and the price of raw materials is soaring, so the short-term market chaos is inevitable.

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